First thoughts: Obama as Jon Lovitz?
Posted: Monday, August 18, 2008 9:39 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:
First Thoughts, 2008
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Channeling Jon Lovitz: Is Obama having a Jon Lovitz-as-Dukakis SNL moment: "I can't believe I'm losing to this guy"? Well, Obama isn’t losing -- he still has a small single-digit lead in most national polls, and he’s ahead narrowly in current electoral-vote projections. But his tone changed a bit campaigning in Reno yesterday, his first full day on the campaign trail since his vacation. To put it simply, he was much more aggressive on the attack. As the AP writes, “So much for hugging in church… [A]fter praising the Arizona senator as a ‘genuine American patriot,’ the Democratic presidential hopeful got back to business -- methodically tearing into McCain's health care, tax and energy policies and criticizing his advisers. More: "The Illinois senator also criticized McCain's advisers as ‘the same old folks that brought you George W. Bush. The same team.’ He noted many had been lobbyists in Washington before McCain asked them to sever all lobbying ties." We've been hearing for a few weeks that the Obama campaign believes it hasn’t been tough enough on McCain. Might we have seen a preview of a rougher treatment of McCain from Obama at his Reno stop yesterday? And does this mean the convention week will be tougher on McCain than either Gore or Kerry were on Bush?
*** Back in the Saddle(back): We seriously underestimated how Saturday’s religious forum was made to order for McCain, despite the perceptions that McCain rarely talks openly about his faith. On all the questions regarding hot-button social issues, the Arizona senator didn’t have to depart from GOP orthodoxy one bit, except on stem cells. To put it another way, the reverse for McCain would have been him -- in an effort to win over union members -- addressing a forum sponsored by the Teamsters. Still, McCain performed very well, and the reviews seem to back that up. Obama also did well given the venue and much of the subject matter. (Although his “above my pay grade” answer on life begins has generated a lot of discussion, how else was a pro-choice politician going to respond to this?). Nevertheless, Obama spent more time trying to impress moderator Rick Warren (or not to offend him), while McCain seemingly ignored Warren and decided he was talking to folks watching on TV. The McCain way of handling this forum is usually the winning way. Obama may have had more authentic moments but McCain was impressively on message. And McCain being on message should quiet many critics on the right who wanted to pounce on him over his hint about a pro-choice running mate. McCain didn't sound like a Republican who was going to cave on some of these important social conservative issues.
*** Practice and blog fodder: Overall, Saturday’s forum was a fascinating event because the contrast between the two candidates was so clear. Obama better be thankful for the timing -- he seemed a little rusty and clearly has some work to do before he meets McCain face-to-face on September 26, the night of the first presidential debate in Oxford, MS. If there is an upside for Obama, it’s that he might now enter the first debate with slightly lower expectations than McCain. One other thing: The fact that McCain wasn’t in a “cone of silence” during Obama’s portion of the forum -- as the New York Times reports today -- is going to be some interesting blog fodder…
*** Veep watch: According to the CW, Joe Biden -- who’s the subject of a New York Times profile and who also is in Georgia (the country, not the state) -- has seen his veep buzz increase. Meanwhile, Romney’s stock appears down, after numerous pieces about conservative unease about the former Massachusetts governor. Yesterday was also a big VP day on the Sunday shows: Kaine and Jindal were on Meet, Bayh and Pawlenty were on Face, and Ridge was on FOX. A few things to think about this week as we dive into the deep end of VP speculation: Does either candidate believe they need a Hail Mary type pick? With the race so close right now, doesn't this guarantee that both Obama and McCain seek out the candidate who presents the least amount of risk or the most amount of spinning? If this thinking is true, then this would mean bad news for Kaine, Sebelius, Romney, Lieberman, and Ridge. Who does that leave? Biden, Bayh, and Pawlenty. Just sayin'... One other thing: Get ready for the ultimate silly season week. Rumors will be rampant about airplane logos, Web site addresses, Secret Service spottages, signs, you name it. Some of these rumors may prove out to be true, but it's going to be a pain to track them all down. Get ready for the wild ride.
*** License and registration, please: Don’t miss today’s fascinating Washington Post piece, which notes that Virginia has added nearly 250,000 new voters since 2004, many of them in the affluent suburbs in Northern Virginia. “New voters alone won't win Virginia for Obama, Democrats say, but they are a central reason Obama has decided to put so many resources into a state that last went for a Democratic presidential nominee in 1964. Pennsylvania, historically a battleground state, has just 45,000 more registered voters than it did in 2004.” Many polls that are using a 2004 weighting of the campaign show Obama with a ceiling of 47-48% in some of these states; this is why he has to change the landscape to find 50%. And in Virginia, at least (as well as in North Carolina) he's having good luck changing the electorate. The question is whether he can really make up 4-6 points in those two states just with voter registration and turnout efforts.
*** Just askin’: Will Ralph Reed actually show up at today’s McCain fundraiser in Atlanta? We said it last week and we’ll say it again: Given the fact that McCain’s Senate Indian Affairs Committee helped uncover the Abramoff scandal and given that McCain has railed against Abramoff on the campaign trail, it’s striking 1) that Reed -- Abramoff’s former business partner -- has helped to raise money for today’s event and 2) that the McCain camp didn’t disassociate themselves from Reed’s participation.
*** Downballot spotlight: NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann says Oregon may provide one of the nation's best thermometers for taking Republicans' temperature in the fall. Two-term GOP Sen. Gordon Smith is maintaining an edge in the polls over Democratic challenger and House Speaker Jeff Merkley, but he's not thanking the “R” next to his name for the lead. Merkley, aided by a DSCC that sees Smith as vulnerable in light-blue Oregon, hopes to paint Smith as a partisan water-carrier for the Bush Administration. But Smith has made waves during this cycle's reelection battle for touting his bipartisan collaborations with Barack Obama and John Kerry. Moreover, he doesn't have an official title within McCain's state organization, and he won't be attending the Republican National Convention in September. "If this were an election in a neutral environment, Gordon Smith would probably win fairly easily, but it's just very toxic for Republicans," this year, says Nathan Gonzales of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. Unlike other states like North Carolina and Virginia, where Democrats have high expectations for downballot candidates as a result of the presidential race, the Smith-Merkley match-up may be more of a referendum on the current administration than on a future one. "If Merkley wins," says Gonzales, "it will have more to do with the shadow of President Bush than the coattails of Barack Obama."
*** On the trail: McCain, in Florida, speaks to the Veterans of Foreign Wars in Orlando and then holds a business roundtable meeting in Cocoa Beach. After that, he heads to a fundraiser in Atlanta. Obama has two events in Albuquerque, NM -- a discussion on the economy with local women and then an economic town hall. He later raises money in San Francisco.
Countdown to Dem convention: 7 days
Countdown to GOP convention: 14 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 78 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 155 days
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