Obama VP Speculation

by: tremayne

Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 23:50



Just ten days between now and the start of the Democratic National Convention so time is running out on a VP announcement. Let's take a look at the possibilities for an announcement.

Friday, August 15: Obama still on vacation in Hawaii

Saturday, August 16: Obama in Nevada and California

Sunday, August 17: Maybe but big day for Olympic coverage

Monday & Tuesday, Aug. 18 & 19: Obama in (Update) New Mexico (Mon.) and Florida

Wednesday, August 20: ??????

Thursday, August 21: Obama campaign event in Virginia, VP?

Friday, August 22: Low ratings for TV, bad day for major press

Saturday, August 23: Same as above except good for Sunday political coverage

Sunday, August 24: Better day for TV ratings but last day of the Olympics

Monday, August 25: Convention begins.

Ambinder has more details on the Virginia possibilities:

Another potential clue: a Democratic research firm spent part of last week quietly focus grouping the political skills and attributes of Kaine and Gov. Mark Warner last week, two people familiar with the results say......Warner came off well; Kaine did not, with respondents saying that he lacks substantive accomplishments and kisses up too much to Obama.

My money is on Wednesday or Thursday for an announcement but a Sunday announcement is also a possibility. Thursdays and Sundays are traditional big ratings days for TV (and TV News in particular).

tremayne :: Obama VP Speculation
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Obama VP Speculation | 35 comments
Interesting... (0.00 / 0)
I like the Virginia presentation of the VP, but especially like the Warner connection.

A surprise Warner announcement would send the media types all atwitter, and really throw Virginia into Obama territory...

Question is could as good a Senate candidate be presented in such a short time to keep the seat a likely Dem pick up?

Maybe Kaine for Senate?  Hmmm...

Boy (4.00 / 1)
If Warner is indeed the VP candidate, I give all the credit in the world to the Obama campaign for keeping that a secret, especially given the articles on him not giving vetting papers.  If all that was done well in secret, wow.
[ Parent ]
I for one would be positively overjoyed... (0.00 / 0)
if it was Warner, but I wouldn't bet on it.

I just don't see him leaving the Senate campaign.

John McCain.  Wrong for America.

[ Parent ]
I don't see Warner leaving the Senate campaign either .. (0.00 / 0)
it's kinda late to get someone else .. especially for what now is a slam dunk .. and Warner bagged out of the Presidential race .. because his kids weren't old enough .. and he didn't want to do the national campaigning ... so I don't see it
[ Parent ]
well (0.00 / 0)
it's only 2.5 months of campaigning for VP versus almost 2 years if he had run for Pres.
[ Parent ]
actually... (0.00 / 0)
...it will be 8 years of campaigning, often while wearing two hats: Vice-President, and Presumptive 2016 Nominee.  Those roles can often conflict.  Because if Warner is the Veep, he's the immediate front-runner for the nomination down the line, and is certainly going to have to get his ducks in a row early if he wants to avoid a major challenge for the nod.

I don't know that he wants to go through that (even though the Naval Observatory is only about a half-hour from his Alexandria home), and I don't know if Obama really wants to have his #2 be someone more concerned with getting to #45 than with fulfilling the administration's agenda.

Yeah I blog.

[ Parent ]
he wouldn't have to (0.00 / 0)
Lieberman didn't in 2000.
[ Parent ]
I kinda think it's gonna be Sebelius (0.00 / 0)
(Even though I really don't want her.)

John McCain.  Wrong for America.
Obama also in NM next week. (0.00 / 0)
Sorry. Date would be helpful. He'll be there Monday. (0.00 / 0)


John McCain is afraid of Canada!
[ Parent ]
thanks (0.00 / 0)
added it
[ Parent ]
Being in Virginia (4.00 / 1)
Can also be anybody from Washington remember.  I'd like Warner, but I'd be surprised given the Senate race.  Would it be possible for Kaine to get in?
Such as (0.00 / 0)
Biden, Daschle

I think that he might announce Weds and do a big appearance in VA to work the state and introduce the VP on the trail to the media and country.  This focus group may be more to push Kaine's stock down by comparing him unfavorably to Warner.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

[ Parent ]
Hopefully not Warner.... (4.00 / 1)
Warner as veep would be a mistake.  He's a virtual lock for the VA senate seat whereas carrying the state for Obama would be much closer to unknown territory.  While he would be a great VP candidate, I can't see him adding enough to the ticket to offset the what he would bring to the table via another Democratic Virginia senator.  As the old saying goes, one in the hand is worth two in the bush.  
Gilmore has screwed up royally (0.00 / 0)
Yes, losing Mark Warner as a Senate candidate in VA would hurt, but Gilmore has messed up the R campaign so much that I could see Kaine or even Rick Boucher picking up that seat with a 5-7 point margin.

And the strength Warner could add to the Obama campaign would be worth risking the gain of one more Senate seat.

Though it begs the question a bit - would VA allow Warner to run both for Senate and VP? (Assuming Warner wins both, would Gov Kaine name the next Senator?)

[ Parent ]
Can I throw out an absolutely crazy idea? (4.00 / 3)
Here it is:

Announce it during the Convention.

Drive the speculation to a frenzy, get the suspense as high as possible, and text it the afternoon of the Veep nomination vote.

It would be huge, and a great way to get an audience banked prior to the big acceptance speech at Invesco.

It'll never happen, to be sure, but it's fun to speculate about.

Yeah I blog.

didn't (0.00 / 0)
Bush Sr. do that with Dan Quayle?

John McCain is afraid of Canada!
[ Parent ]
I believe so (0.00 / 0)
...though I just don't see it happening in this day and age of instant news and multiple 24-hour infotainment channels.  But it would be a major event.

Yeah I blog.
[ Parent ]
and (0.00 / 0)
it's be even better if it wasn't Kaine or Bayh.

John McCain is afraid of Canada!
[ Parent ]
Could happen (0.00 / 0)
It would follow Obama's pattern so far of bobbing and weaving the VP question to maximum effect. And it might drive up ratings, as well as throw a wrench into the network's plan of scaling down convention coverage.  

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra
[ Parent ]
An observation: (4.00 / 1)
With the exception of Bayh and Kaine, the other potential veeps don't seem to be particularly long-term prospects, in the sense that Kaine and Bayh seem like the only potential candidates still being mentioned who would likely be the nominee in eight years.  Kaine's ten years younger than Sebelius, and Bayh is seven.  Sebelius, Richardson, Clinton and Daschle are 60ish, Biden is 65, Dodd is 64, Clark is 63--none of them are likely to carry on an administrative legacy.

Perhaps that's intentional on Obama's part: if you really plan to change politics, then your successor shouldn't be someone who was around when you came to power, and it makes it less likely that the Veep's ambition will clash with the administration's priorities.  But it seems interesting, and it makes his Cabinet choices all the more important, since it's quite possible that one of them will be #45.

Yeah I blog.

Clark (0.00 / 0)
Someone like Clark could 'retire' after one term, allowing Obama to pick an heir apparent - especially if he is a strong favorite for re-election in four years. Otherwise, one would think he would avoid a 60+ pick unless he felt it was needed to win the current election (but unlike McCain, Obama doesn't seem that desperate).  

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra
[ Parent ]
VP is not a great way to become Pres (0.00 / 0)
Name the last two sitting Vice Presidents to be elected President. No points for Bush I.
[ Parent ]
You're Overlooking (0.00 / 0)
Sitting VPs often don't become presidents. However, former VP-nominees become Presidential nominees a lot. See: Nixon, Mondale, Gore, G.H.W. Bush, Humphrey, LBJ, just to name a few.
[ Parent ]
Not true (0.00 / 0)
Since 1900 there have been 6 presidents whose highest previous office was VP. There have been 7 governors, 2 Senators, and 2 cabinet secretaries.  Since there are far fewer VPs than governors, being VP is by far the likeliest way to become president.  Might not happen right after leaving office, and it might not happen by election, but being VP is, in fact, the best way to become president.
[ Parent ]
Martin Van Buren and George H.W. Bush (0.00 / 0)
In my mind, Al Gore would be part of the answer because he really was elected President.  Before that it becomes
George H.W. Bush and Martin Van Buren.  Each served one term and was then ousted.

Actually, Thomas Jefferson and John Adamd would "count" but neither was a part of a presidential/VP slate under the original rules.  Jefferson invented the slate and then nearly lost the Presidency because of it to planned VP Aaron Burr.

Only four of 46 VPs fit your mold.  Eliminate the first two who were elected under different rules and it becomes two of 12.  Or really, two of 44. OTOH, 14 of 46 VPs became President.  Pick someone qualified and you are more likely to get Jefferson, Theodore Roosevelt or Harry Truman (all of whom went from VP to P).

[ Parent ]
sitting? (0.00 / 0)
Before Bush I was Martin Van Buren in 1836 (thank you, Capitol Steps!).  But the last former Veep to be elected (not counting Gore), was Nixon, and before that Johnson, and before that Truman, and before that Coolidge.

It's a lot easier to become President once you've been Veep: you're a national figure, generally seen as an elder statesman within the party, and you're the presumptive nominee once your Veep term ends.  That's a hell of a leg up, and certainly the biggest boost a pol gunning for the White House can get.

It's not a sure bet by any stretch, but it's undeniably a boost.

Yeah I blog.

[ Parent ]
remember, the "announcement" will (4.00 / 1)
come via text and email. We don't know how soon after that the rollout will be.
The announcement could come on Saturday, telling us the place and time of the Sunday rally with the VP nominee.
Looking like Kaine again... (4.00 / 1)
Only one still not scheduled at the DNC and the Virginia event practically gives it away... The only way it's not Kaine is if he decides to announce next Monday in NM or FL just a random candidate (or, I suppose, Richardson could still be announced in NM, and I could get down with that).

Or, once again... Obama is just playing games with everyone and he'll just announce whoever whenever... The amount of conflicting messages that are being sent out almost seems like it has to be intentional, either as last minute floaters or just to throw everyone off track and build suspense.

It takes just a couple of hours (0.00 / 0)
Obama can easily hop on a plane and be anywhere in the country in just a few hours. It's not like the schedule is set in stone here.

I don't think his schedule and the convention lineup necessarily tell us anything.

I'm at the point where I have accepted it could be anyone - (0.00 / 0)
it's easier to eliminate - it won't be:

Edwards
Kucinich
Clinton
or Lieberman

but pretty much everyone else including Republicans like Hagel could still be on 'the list'

I confess I'm stumped and will be surprised

I'm still hoping for Edwards! (0.00 / 0)